Thiruvananthapuram, Feb. 14 Lingering moisture and ambient surface temperatures combined to throw up a fog cover over the Indo-Gangetic plains on Friday.
These conditions are expected to continue over the next two to three days as well, according to India Meteorological Department (IMD).
MERCURY UP Meanwhile, an incoming western disturbance has been spotted over north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir. This expected to affect the western Himalayas during the next two days.
The minimum temperatures have since rose above normal by 4-6 deg C over west Rajasthan, Surashtra, Kutch, Jammu and Kashmir and sub-Himalayan west Bengal. They are up by 2-3 deg Celsius over parts of east Rajasthan and northeast India, Gangetic West Bengal and Orissa.
But they are below normal by 2-3 deg Celsius over central India after a prevailing western disturbance exited the region.
MAXIMUM LEVEL The Global Forecast System (GFS) model of the Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Services sees the maximum temperature over parts of northwest India steadily hitting the 30-35 deg Celsius during the rest of the month.
This is the maximum tolerance level that the Rabi wheat crop can cope with from March.
The model also shows the winter precipitation regime waxing and waning through this period. This should keep the mercury from flaring up further over the region.
The extreme south peninsula is also shown to receive some precipitation during this phase.
The IMD has warned of isolated heavy snowfall and rain over Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh during next two days. The minimum temperatures are expected to fall by 2-4 deg Celsius after Monday with the causative western disturbance moving away.
Latest updated (valid from February) forecast from the Tokyo-based Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC) says that the current La Nina conditions in the equatorial Pacific would decay during the following spring and summer.
La Nina, which represents warming of the west Pacific relative to the east, has been traditionally considered a good augury for the Indian monsoon, but without direct one-to-one connection.
Mr Jing-Jia Luo, Senior Scientist at the Climate Variations Research Program at FRCGC told Business Line that even an “intermediate-to-strong El Nino” might happen late this year. As for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which has far more immediate impact for India than El Nino/La Nina, he said it is still too early to say. “Both positive and negative IOD have equal probability of occurrence.” A positive IOD, an unprecedented fourth on a trot if it were to happen, would help amplify the Indian monsoon as was case during the last three years of its occurrence.